Lockdowns or no lockdowns, NAB tips house prices to rise 20% by 2022

29 July 2021

The National Australia Bank has forecast Melbourne’s property prices to rise by 20 per cent by the end of 2022.

In a warning to first home buyers, the new NAB report has our property market surging again this year despite the ever-present spectre of COVID lockdowns.

It’s not just Melbourne, the NAB predict prices to rise in Sydney by similar sort of levels.

“The better than expected recovery in the economy and labour market alongside very low interest rates has supported the strong rebound in the property market,” NAB chief economist Alan Oster says in the report.

Melbourne is tipped to have house prices jump 17 per cent for the rest of this year followed by a more subdued 3.5 per cent rise in 2022 as first home buyers begin to lose touch with the market and hit their ‘ceiling’.

“Affordability constraints will likely begin to [be felt] over the year and see a slowing in price growth as the impact of lower rates fades,” Dr Oster said.

CoreLogic’s auction market review for the June quarter recorded the busiest sales period for four years with around 30,000 homes going for auction.

Clearance rates have eased slightly since the previous quarter however, down to 76 per cent from the 80 per cent.

“This reflects a broader loss of momentum in the Australian housing market, as affordability constraints set in, and March looks to be a peak period of growth for the current cycle,” CoreLogic’s head of research Eliza Owen told the Sydney Morning Herald.


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